Base Oil Market foreseen to grow exponentially over 2020 – 2030
Transparency Market Research has released a new market report titled Base Oil Market – Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2015 – 2020. According to this report, the global demand for base oil stood nearly at 36,614.3 kilo tons in 2014 and is projected to reach 39,614.7 kilo tons by 2020, expanding at a CAGR of 1.4% between 2015 and 2020.
The report also takes into account the effect of slump in the crude oil prices since July 2014 on base oil prices. According to this study, the was valued at USD 34,514.1 million in 2014 and is anticipated to reach USD 30,973.1 million by 2020, expanding at a CAGR of 0.3% between 2015 and 2020.
The automotive industry is one of the key-end users of lubricants. With the rapidly growing global automobile sector, the demand for lubricants and base oils is likely to increase significantly in the near future. Stringent norms related to emissions are currently being implemented worldwide. These norms generally emphasize on stricter carbon dioxide emission standards and enhancements in fuel economy. The shift towards stricter emission norms and better fuel economy would entail the use of better quality lubricants. This demand for high quality environment-friendly lubricants is bringing about a change in the base oil industry. The increased demand for highly efficient base oils along with the constantly evolving lubricants formulation process are important drivers for the growth of the base oils market. However, dwindling supply of sweet crude, particularly in regions such as North America and Europe, coupled with less impurity and lower prices of sour crude is forcing refiners to change their preference from crude oil to sour crude.
Plummeting crude oil prices negatively affect the base oil revenues. With the fundamentals remaining fairly weak, it is difficult to assess whether base oil prices would stabilize at current level or further encounter obstructions on the way to recovery. According to our current estimates, oil prices and as a result, base oil prices would remain volatile and unpredictable than ever before over the next few years (particularly till 2017). The base oil demand is unlikely to improve substantially till 2016. However, rapid industrialization in emerging economies, especially in BRIC, is expected to augment the demand for lubricants across various end-user industries. Moreover, technological advances such as gas-to-liquid (GTL) technology would be one of the key opportunity areas for registering growth in the market. The lubricant base stocks produced from the GTL refining process are commonly referred to as ISO Paraffin. These have currently emerged as viable alternatives for the conventional Group III and Group IV lubricants used in the manufacture of high efficiency lubricants.
Group I base oils currently account for the largest market share globally, both in terms of production and consumption. However, Group I base oils are rapidly losing out on the global market share owing to their brisk substitution by Group II and Group III base oils. Both Group II and Group III base oils are of a higher quality and thus are capable of meeting emission norms in vehicles and conforming to the performance standards of new machineries. This shift in the consumption from Group I base oils to other high purity base oils has been observed acutely in certain regions and moderately in others. As Group I consumption gradually declines in numerous regions across the world, there is a downward pressure on prices. This significantly hampers the profit margins of Group I producers, owing to which numerous plants have resorted to shutdowns in the recent past. On the contrary, owing to the rapidly rising consumption of both Group II and Group III base oils, new production capacities for the same are being added globally. The maximum production capacity is likely to be added for Group II base oils by 2020, followed closely by Group III. No investments have been planned for the Group I base oil sector, and none are expected in the future as well.
The base oils market has been segmented on the basis of application into automotive oils, process oils, industrial oils, metalworking fluids, hydraulic oils, and others. The automotive oils segment accounted for the major market share in terms of the base oil consumption globally in 2014. The automotive industry currently prefers using high quality Group II and Group III base oils for lubricant formulation rather than Group I. A similar trend may be observed in the industrial oils segment, which increasingly prefers Group II base oils instead of Group I. It has been observed that certain grades of Group I such as SN500 could be perfectly substituted by 500N grade of Group II base oils. Owing to the numerous performance advantages offered by high quality base oils to a production line, the rate of adoption of Group II base oils during the forecast period is likely to be significantly high.
Global Base Oil Market: Application Analysis
- Automotive Oils
- Industrial Oils
- Process Oils
- Metalworking Fluids
- Hydraulic Oils
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